What we will choose. Academician Anatoly Rubinov reflects
Some people are terribly tired of the way our lives are organized. They are tired of stability and want drastic changes. Indeed, every day is the same! In the morning, you get in the car with your wife (or each in your own car if your wife has a driver's license), easily take the children to school, kindergarten, or an after-school club, and refuel on the way. The gas stations are convenient, there's always gasoline of any brand. How boring! I remember having to queue for miles at night to refuel. But what joy it was when you finally got to the pump!
If you're not traveling by car but by bus, the bus arrives exactly on schedule, to the minute. It's even disgusting! And the buses are new, with low steps, and don't let exhaust fumes into the cabin. We make them ourselves. And they've started making excellent electric trains. But what's good about that? Comfort makes you soft, people lose their resilience.
Again, the roads. Wonderful roads, you can drive at 120 kilometers per hour. But you can also fall asleep on such a road. Unlike before – with potholes and bumps, you wouldn't fall asleep then. But there was risk, adrenaline!
After work, you return home, and then there's the parking problem. People are getting poorer, but there are more and more cars, and not cheap ones at that – plenty of SUVs and other expensive foreign cars. So you struggle to find a place to park.
And at home, family, coziness, usually European-style renovations, computers, TVs with huge screens await you. Not to mention refrigerators, freezers, microwave ovens, and washing machines, these are elementary. Almost everyone has smartphones or tablets, even small children.
Or maybe you're not going to your apartment, but to your dacha – most families have dachas nowadays. Or to a cottage – there are tons of them built around the cities. Or maybe you'll stop by a store on the way for groceries. There are plenty of groceries – vegetables, fruits, meat products, all fresh, all beautifully packaged. It's not like it used to be. Sometimes, if you managed to stock up on sugar for jam, that was great happiness! Or to get buckwheat through connections – that was a blast! And now you can buy whatever you want, as much as you want, and all without any connections.
But you don't have to go to the store. You can order any groceries or goods online – they'll deliver everything to your home, whether it's your apartment or your dacha, all in the best condition, without any fraud anddeception. It's even boring!
And in general, we have no financial pyramids, no fake companies, no collectors terrorizing the population, no black realtors. No adventures for you! It's safe to walk the streets, even in the evening. This is some kind of societal decay, stagnation!
Unlike, for example, in thoroughly democratic France. They don't like to be bored there – if they don't burn a couple of thousand cars a year, there's nothing to gossip about in cafes. Or again, the States – that's where you can let loose! Beat, smash, burn, shoot, tear down monuments – complete personal freedom. Some governors allow it, others forbid it, the police, fearing public opinion, do not intervene, and the president shrugs. He has no power! There is democracy, but no power, so everyone does as they please.
Or you can envy Ukraine. How many presidents have been there, how many Maidan uprisings, any parties, rallies, shouts you want. If someone is disliked, they can be doused with paint, put in a dumpster, and paraded down Khreshchatyk with jeers. Complete personal freedom! And the country, as it was divided among several oligarchs, remains so, and the pervasive corruption, as it was, has not gone anywhere and is strengthening every year. Disputes, fights, pulling each other by the hair in parliament, and no strong government. That's how Crimea slipped away, Donbas and Luhansk are slipping away, leaving numerous victims, hatred, nationalism, religious schism, and economic degradation. But at least there's democracy!
So if anyone wants change, there's someone to take an example from.
However, Singapore is an unsuitable example – there was no democracy there, and the country flourished precisely thanks to a dictatorship. The authoritarian but very sensible President Lee Kuan Y ruled the country for over 30 years without interruption, and under his leadership, Singapore achieved fantastic results.
So, it is better not to cite this example; it does not benefit today's agitators. Today, it is also better not to cite the USA or the leading EU countries as examples. There is such a mess, such problems, that a state, on the one hand, paralyzed by modern liberal ideology, and on the other hand, tied hand and foot by a democratic system, is completely incapable of solving them. Therefore, Belarus will be like Sweden or Switzerland. Why? Well, because we want it to be, because it sounds beautiful and attractive.
The main thing is to seize power – and everything will immediately become good. They promisemeasures, they promise to immediately increase teachers' salaries several times over, because teachers deserve it. Of course, they deserve it, and the problem needs to be solved. But at whose expense? And they say, we will cancel financial support for state enterprises and give this money to teachers. — And what will happen to the enterprises and the people working there? — So we will give the enterprises to private owners. — To which private owners? Will we give them away for free to be plundered or sell them? To whom, for what money, who will pay it? Pure fantasy. And what will happen to the people who are proposed to be massively laid offto increase production efficiency? — And we will open new jobs and pay a decent unemployment benefit. — So, where will the money come from for benefits and jobs? After all, to open a job, you first need to invest funds so that this job pays for itself. So with what money can all these fantasies be realized? There is no answer to this, which means that the promise of a multiple increase in teachers' salaries is a fiction, elementary deception, and shameless pre-election PR. Just like everything else in their promises.
For example, a reference to investors. Like, investors will come, take our enterprises under their wing, invest a lot of money, and the economy will flourish. Yeah, right! They'll definitely come! They're practically lining up. They're not going to Lithuania or Latvia, even though they are EU countries, but they'll definitely come to Belarus and take patronage over our problematic enterprises. Or they'll build new, efficient ones. It doesn't matter that now, in the face of an approaching crisis, complicated by a pandemic, both the US and European countries are massively returning capital and production from abroad back to their own countries.
The main slogan of all contenders is to establish true democracy in the country, with separation of powers, private property, freedom of the press, etc. Wonderful ideas! Only it all sounds good on paper, but in practice... We've seen from the example of our neighbors what attempts to implement such intentions quickly, in one fell swoop, lead to in practice. Russians haven't forgotten about shock therapy yet.
Remember how Yeltsin, upon heading the new Russia, began to vigorously introduce democratic order? Separation of powers, regional autonomy ("take as much freedom as you can swallow"), independence of the media, privatization of the economy, etc. And what was the result?
Instead of the idealthe democratic system, for the sake of which a large country was destroyed, resulted in a handful of oligarchs who appropriated all natural resources, degradation and destruction of the production potential, impoverishment of the population, a rampant rise in crime and corruption, a decline in science and education, and so on. And the attempt to divide the branches of power ended with the shelling of parliament and the complete surrender of positions by the Constitutional Court. That's all the democratization! That's what the good intentions and rosy promises of Russian young reformers led to, whose worn-out theses are so carelessly repeated today in Belarus by our sweet-talking contenders.
The vivid experience of building democracy in Ukraine has already been discussed. We see equally deplorable results of "democratization" in Moldova. So how long can we repeat all these elementary arguments from the simplest textbooks about the advantages of private property and the democratic system! It's not that simple, gentlemen! As Zhvanetsky said, everyone knows that it's good there, everyone knows that it's bad here, but no one knows how to get from one to the other!
So, will we just sit forever and not move anywhere? Of course not. In fact, over the past couple of decades, we have already seen colossal positive shifts both in people's material well-being and in the organization of our entire lives. The very fact that today more than half of the population is employed inin private business, this in itself indicates a significant change in the social and economic structure of society. These changes create good prerequisites for a more active development of private property and private capital, and for increasing their role in society. This, in turn, inevitably raises questions about improving the political structure of the state and expanding democratic principles of governance. All this can and should be done, but not by revolutionary means.
Alexander Lukashenko has long announced the need to amend the country's Constitution to democratize the state system. Preparatory work in this direction has been underway for a year. This is where politicians need to show civic activity and persistently put forward the issues and problems that have ripened in society. Everything can be resolved peacefully, without cataclysms, if we work constructively and persistently.
Today, the whole world is in a critical state. It is quite obvious that a serious global crisis is imminent, and therefore there will be no one to expect help from. And in these conditions, to initiate upheavals with power, to carry out radical reforms, to turn the whole country upside down, to plunge it into strikes and mass protests would be simply suicidal. You don't change horses in midstream. And now we are facing exactly a crossing, a very difficult crossing into a new economy, into a new world system, into an unknown, new post-crisis era. And only those who are united and organized, who do not waste resources on internal strife, but direct all their potential to creation, to finding new solutions and new opportunities, to strengthening their place in this contradictory and competitive world, will survive.
But the main problem is not even that. The question is whether our country will survive as a sovereign state in the future, or whether we will be unable to maintain our independence.
Almost 30 years ago, Belarus, for the first time in history, gained the right to independent statehood. ButIt is one thing to politically declare one's sovereignty, and another to practically build and fine-tune the entire complex state mechanism to ensure the country's effective development and self-determination. After all, in today's contradictory world, it is not easy for a small country without rich natural resources to maintain its independence. And one must understand that without the firmness and strong character of Alexander Grigoryevich, his devotion to Belarus, to the building of which he dedicated most of his life, without his outstanding political acumen, Belarus might not have preserved its sovereignty under the current circumstances. This must be clearly realized, and one should not be distracted by empty talk about freedom and democracy, with which some contenders are currently engaging the public. Some believe that we should focus on uniting with Russia, others on joining the European Union. But why? Why are we constantly striving to join something?! After all, independence is a great value, so why should we voluntarily give it up? It is better to live independently, by our own wits, and solve our own problems. But at the same time, to maintain firm and sincere friendships with our neighbors, to be friends and cooperate with any countries and alliances, as long as it is in the interests of our own state and people.
And in general, we have no financial pyramids, no fake companies, no collectors terrorizing the population, no black realtors. No adventures for you! It's safe to walk the streets, even in the evening. This is some kind of societal decay, stagnation!
Unlike, for example, in thoroughly democratic France. They don't like to be bored there – if they don't burn a couple of thousand cars a year, there's nothing to gossip about in cafes. Or again, the States – that's where you can let loose! Beat, smash, burn, shoot, tear down monuments – complete personal freedom. Some governors allow it, others forbid it, the police, fearing public opinion, do not intervene, and the president shrugs. He has no power! There is democracy, but no power, so everyone does as they please.
Or you can envy Ukraine. How many presidents have been there, how many Maidan uprisings, any parties, rallies, shouts you want. If someone is disliked, they can be doused with paint, put in a dumpster, and paraded down Khreshchatyk with jeers. Complete personal freedom! And the country, as it was divided among several oligarchs, remains so, and the pervasive corruption, as it was, has not gone anywhere and is strengthening every year. Disputes, fights, pulling each other by the hair in parliament, and no strong government. That's how Crimea slipped away, Donbas and Luhansk are slipping away, leaving numerous victims, hatred, nationalism, religious schism, and economic degradation. But at least there's democracy!
So if anyone wants change, there's someone to take an example from.
If you are really tired of having hot water and electricity in your apartment without interruption, that houses and roads are regularly repaired, that cleanliness and order are maintained in cities and villages, that ambulances work promptly and for free, that medical care is organized at the most modern level and you don't have to go abroad, pay crazy money to have a complex operation, if you are tired of the fact that we have no religious and national strife and peace and tranquility are maintained in society, then yes – there is no need to support today's government.But maybe it will be even better without Lukashenko? Look how beautifulyou are drawn by our sweet-voiced contenders. They promise that as soon as they come to power, full democracy will come, and the country will immediately become like Sweden, or like Switzerland, or like Singapore.
However, Singapore is an unsuitable example – there was no democracy there, and the country flourished precisely thanks to a dictatorship. The authoritarian but very sensible President Lee Kuan Y ruled the country for over 30 years without interruption, and under his leadership, Singapore achieved fantastic results.
So, it is better not to cite this example; it does not benefit today's agitators. Today, it is also better not to cite the USA or the leading EU countries as examples. There is such a mess, such problems, that a state, on the one hand, paralyzed by modern liberal ideology, and on the other hand, tied hand and foot by a democratic system, is completely incapable of solving them. Therefore, Belarus will be like Sweden or Switzerland. Why? Well, because we want it to be, because it sounds beautiful and attractive.
The main thing is to seize power – and everything will immediately become good. They promisemeasures, they promise to immediately increase teachers' salaries several times over, because teachers deserve it. Of course, they deserve it, and the problem needs to be solved. But at whose expense? And they say, we will cancel financial support for state enterprises and give this money to teachers. — And what will happen to the enterprises and the people working there? — So we will give the enterprises to private owners. — To which private owners? Will we give them away for free to be plundered or sell them? To whom, for what money, who will pay it? Pure fantasy. And what will happen to the people who are proposed to be massively laid offto increase production efficiency? — And we will open new jobs and pay a decent unemployment benefit. — So, where will the money come from for benefits and jobs? After all, to open a job, you first need to invest funds so that this job pays for itself. So with what money can all these fantasies be realized? There is no answer to this, which means that the promise of a multiple increase in teachers' salaries is a fiction, elementary deception, and shameless pre-election PR. Just like everything else in their promises.
For example, a reference to investors. Like, investors will come, take our enterprises under their wing, invest a lot of money, and the economy will flourish. Yeah, right! They'll definitely come! They're practically lining up. They're not going to Lithuania or Latvia, even though they are EU countries, but they'll definitely come to Belarus and take patronage over our problematic enterprises. Or they'll build new, efficient ones. It doesn't matter that now, in the face of an approaching crisis, complicated by a pandemic, both the US and European countries are massively returning capital and production from abroad back to their own countries.
Because in difficult times, everyone cares primarily about their national economy. But our new politicians pretend that this does not concern Belarus.They just need to give the call, and investors, disregarding national interests, will all rush headlong into our country to bring their money here. A classic formula from the times of Ostap Bender: "The West will help us."
The main slogan of all contenders is to establish true democracy in the country, with separation of powers, private property, freedom of the press, etc. Wonderful ideas! Only it all sounds good on paper, but in practice... We've seen from the example of our neighbors what attempts to implement such intentions quickly, in one fell swoop, lead to in practice. Russians haven't forgotten about shock therapy yet.
Remember how Yeltsin, upon heading the new Russia, began to vigorously introduce democratic order? Separation of powers, regional autonomy ("take as much freedom as you can swallow"), independence of the media, privatization of the economy, etc. And what was the result?
Instead of the idealthe democratic system, for the sake of which a large country was destroyed, resulted in a handful of oligarchs who appropriated all natural resources, degradation and destruction of the production potential, impoverishment of the population, a rampant rise in crime and corruption, a decline in science and education, and so on. And the attempt to divide the branches of power ended with the shelling of parliament and the complete surrender of positions by the Constitutional Court. That's all the democratization! That's what the good intentions and rosy promises of Russian young reformers led to, whose worn-out theses are so carelessly repeated today in Belarus by our sweet-talking contenders.
The vivid experience of building democracy in Ukraine has already been discussed. We see equally deplorable results of "democratization" in Moldova. So how long can we repeat all these elementary arguments from the simplest textbooks about the advantages of private property and the democratic system! It's not that simple, gentlemen! As Zhvanetsky said, everyone knows that it's good there, everyone knows that it's bad here, but no one knows how to get from one to the other!
We have a new, young state. And at the very beginning, during its formation, national unity and resource concentration are especially necessary.It is not the self-organization of society from below, but the purposeful and rational organization of it from above that allows for the creation of an effective state system in the shortest possible time. And no revolution, and no shock experiments with democratization will speed things up. On the contrary, sharp, ill-considered actions can only slow down this process, lead to chaos, devastation, and civil conflicts.
So, will we just sit forever and not move anywhere? Of course not. In fact, over the past couple of decades, we have already seen colossal positive shifts both in people's material well-being and in the organization of our entire lives. The very fact that today more than half of the population is employed inin private business, this in itself indicates a significant change in the social and economic structure of society. These changes create good prerequisites for a more active development of private property and private capital, and for increasing their role in society. This, in turn, inevitably raises questions about improving the political structure of the state and expanding democratic principles of governance. All this can and should be done, but not by revolutionary means.
Alexander Lukashenko has long announced the need to amend the country's Constitution to democratize the state system. Preparatory work in this direction has been underway for a year. This is where politicians need to show civic activity and persistently put forward the issues and problems that have ripened in society. Everything can be resolved peacefully, without cataclysms, if we work constructively and persistently.Today, the whole world is in a critical state. It is quite obvious that a serious global crisis is imminent, and therefore there will be no one to expect help from. And in these conditions, to initiate upheavals with power, to carry out radical reforms, to turn the whole country upside down, to plunge it into strikes and mass protests would be simply suicidal. You don't change horses in midstream. And now we are facing exactly a crossing, a very difficult crossing into a new economy, into a new world system, into an unknown, new post-crisis era. And only those who are united and organized, who do not waste resources on internal strife, but direct all their potential to creation, to finding new solutions and new opportunities, to strengthening their place in this contradictory and competitive world, will survive.
But the main problem is not even that. The question is whether our country will survive as a sovereign state in the future, or whether we will be unable to maintain our independence.
Almost 30 years ago, Belarus, for the first time in history, gained the right to independent statehood. ButIt is one thing to politically declare one's sovereignty, and another to practically build and fine-tune the entire complex state mechanism to ensure the country's effective development and self-determination. After all, in today's contradictory world, it is not easy for a small country without rich natural resources to maintain its independence. And one must understand that without the firmness and strong character of Alexander Grigoryevich, his devotion to Belarus, to the building of which he dedicated most of his life, without his outstanding political acumen, Belarus might not have preserved its sovereignty under the current circumstances. This must be clearly realized, and one should not be distracted by empty talk about freedom and democracy, with which some contenders are currently engaging the public. Some believe that we should focus on uniting with Russia, others on joining the European Union. But why? Why are we constantly striving to join something?! After all, independence is a great value, so why should we voluntarily give it up? It is better to live independently, by our own wits, and solve our own problems. But at the same time, to maintain firm and sincere friendships with our neighbors, to be friends and cooperate with any countries and alliances, as long as it is in the interests of our own state and people.