Powerful analysis from Lukashenko. The President clearly laid out the prerequisites for the events in Ukraine

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, at a meeting with members of the Security Council and the leadership of the Council of Ministers today, presented a detailed analysis of the prerequisites for the current events in and around Ukraine.

"We planned today's meeting with the government, dedicating it to a number of the country's economic problems. However, recent events in the world, and most importantly, their speculative interpretation in the media, the internet space, especially from our fugitive scoundrels with conjectures and brazen lies, predetermined the new format of the meeting and a wider range of participants with the invitation of Security Council members and our specialists who are engaged in information confrontation, I will not hide it, a war. I see that there is a need to clearly lay out the events in Ukraine, taking into account their prerequisites, based on reliable facts. Perhaps even those facts that are usually not talked about. But the situation forces me to do so," the head of state noted.

To begin with, he turned to the origins of this serious European conflict. "God grant that it does not escalate into an international, planetary one. It did not even begin in 2014. Then it first entered an acute armed phase. But what preceded it?" the Belarusian leader outlined the question.

On an international level

The absolute disregard by the West for the security system, the leveling of the system of checks and balances, hard-won after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The degradation and devaluation of international treaties and agreements have led to an escalation of the military-political situation in our region.

The intensified militarization, especially in Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania, does not cease.

The financing of national armed forces has long exceeded NATO's required norm of 2% of GDP. "Remember, this was Donald Trump's requirement. It's already more," the head of state noted.

At the same time, the US itself increased its military budget in 2022 by almost 4% (almost $770 billion), and Ukraine – up to 6% of GDP.

On the domestic political level

The rapid Ukrainization of the country by radical elements using the tools of propaganda of Nazi ideas against the backdrop of the destruction of Russian culture, language, and historical memory, including in the territories inhabited by ethnic Russians.

"We see the tragic result of all this in Ukraine today. Did the majority of the Ukrainian population want to see this? Of course not. But Maidan did its job," the President stated.

With the support of external forces, a coup d'état was carried out, which is acknowledged even in the West. Blood was shed. A war began in Donbas. All of Europe shuddered.

"Remember, to stop the carnage in Ukraine in 2014, we plunged headfirst into peacekeeping processes from the very beginning. We advocated for a peaceful settlement and the earliest cessation of human casualties and suffering. We proposed Minsk for the work of the Trilateral Contact Group at the request of Russia and Ukraine. It was the Minsk agreements that stopped the bloodshed. Yes, there were sporadic shootings. But the war stopped, and civilians, and not only civilians, stopped dying by the hundreds and thousands," said the head of state. - In October, I proposed using Belarusian servicemen, primarily our border guards at the time, as a peacekeeping contingent in order to separate the conflicting parties in Donbas. However, at that moment, there was no interest in this proposal at the first stage. We returned to this topic in the autumn of 2017 at the UN Security Council. And again, in response, silence."

Meanwhile, it was obvious to everyone that the prerequisites for the conflict had not disappeared. Moreover, the West intensified its approaches to the militarization of the region. It drew the Ukrainian side into this story with unfulfilled promises of the country's accession to the European Union and NATO. "The goal is one – to provoke us, primarily Russia. And many European politicians do not hesitate to talk about this from the rostrum today," the President noted.

Meanwhile, civilians continued to die in Donbas. "And, mind you, this war was sort of unseen in the West. They went blind, and very recently – this runaway Polish serviceman told how they were hunting. They went blind, nobody saw, and deaf, nobody heard," the President noted. "There were no photos in the Western press of children sitting in a basement during shelling, and numerous victims of Ukrainian aggression against the civilian population. Were those deaths not enough for everyone in Europe to sit down and define trust and security measures in the region, taking into account new realities?"

He continued: we sounded the alarm from various international platforms, put forward a whole series of major initiatives aimed at restarting international dialogue on European security issues ("Helsinki-2"), supported all peace initiatives and participated in them.

The Head of State noted that at that time, within the leadership, particularly in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there were two opinions on whether to come forward with these initiatives, understanding our place in the world: "Knowing that even if they heard us, they would dismiss it. It's not America proposing an initiative, but Belarus. And then I made a decision: let them not hear, if they hear – let them not act, but we must talk about it."

Belarus remained committed to relevant international obligations even when leading countries withdrew from them. In August 2019, it was announced that Belarus would continue to implement the provisions of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF Treaty). Belarus did not withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, unlike the United States. The country also remained a participant in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. "We observe these treaties, although certain countries have wiped their feet on them," he stated.

The Russian leadership also addressed the US and NATO with proposals to launch an open dialogue on security issues. Its proposals were ignored, directly or indirectly.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly openly called for respect for Russian security interests. These calls went unheard.

Meanwhile, Ukraine was being pumped with weapons and encouraged to seek revenge in Donbas. Extremist organizations of a Nazi bent flourished. In 2020, Belarus began to be destabilized. "The presidential elections were used. An attempt at a coup d'état was made in our country according to the Ukrainian scenario with the active involvement of Ukrainian nationalists and cyber warfare centers located in Ukraine," the Belarusian leader noted.

In the Volyn region, near the Belarusian borders, bases and training camps were created with the knowledge of the competent Ukrainian authorities to train "volunteers" for participation in Belarusian events. "This, by the way, was publicly confirmed in court by Semenchenko, the commander of the 'Donbas' battalion, who is currently in custody. There is also irrefutable evidence of the involvement of Ukrainian special services in the activities of Avtukhovich's gang in acquiring ammunition in Ukraine and moving it to Belarus. This is not the only fact. We have told our people about this. Think about it, more than 15 political emigration centers and structures operate on the territory of Ukraine, which are engaged in recruiting and supporting fugitives from Belarus," said the head of state.

In 2020-2021 alone, Belarusian border guards and Ukrainian services discovered four caches of weapons and ammunition on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Hand-held anti-tank grenades, explosive devices, a huge quantity of explosives, cartridges.

In total, over the past three years, the activities of 12 agents and regular officers of Ukrainian special services have been suppressed in Belarus. "We can name them by name. We have talked about this. If you wish, we can repeat it. We assumed then, but now it is obvious: before dealing with Russia, it was necessary to destroy the so-called Belarusian balcony. Remember, this is fundamental. Before going to war with Russia, if this conflict had not occurred, they would have trained on us. When the blitzkrieg in Belarus failed in August 2020, they started to strangle us economically," said Alexander Lukashenko. - And the Ukraine that every Belarusian loves turned out to be almost in the wake of anti-Belarusian rhetoric."

A "cardinal change in the situation in Belarusian-Ukrainian relations" was announced with the cessation of interstate dialogue at the highest and high levels, and the broadcasting of Belarusian information TV channels was terminated.

Official Kyiv supported, and in some cases ran ahead of the West in anti-Belarusian rhetoric and joined the EU sanctions against Belarus. Ukraine's airspace was closed to Belarusian aviation.

The Parliament of Ukraine became the main platform for biased rhetoric, anti-Belarusian statements, lobbying for decisions aimed at supporting the radical Belarusian opposition, and providing financial and resource support to fugitives. "All this was done on the orders of certain forces. You know them well. I am convinced that if it were not for the prompting of these forces in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by Western sponsors who want to destroy Belarus and Russia, there would not have been such a stir in the parliament," the President is sure.

In the economy

A ban on the import of Belarusian electricity was introduced, restrictive measures on the supply of certain goods, and targeted sanctions against some domestic economic entities operating in the oil refining and potash fertilizer supply sectors.

At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko noted, during a critical period when Ukraine's entire energy system could have collapsed, Belarus, at the request of the Ukrainian side, assisted with electricity supplies. "We did it. After a week, we refused. Well, as you wish... After two days, they were on their knees again, begging. We resumed supplies again. Now they have refused again. What's next: at the behest of the same West, they are stopping the transit of our potash fertilizers from BKК via railway and taking other measures. Poland and Lithuania acted in parallel with them. In response, we made the well-known decision regarding Lithuania. But what is most surprising is that about 40% of diesel fuel and high-quality gasoline (they themselves said so) were supplied by us to Ukraine. And then they make a decision, supposedly to harm us. But is it us they are harming?" - the head of state listed.

Provocations at the state border have intensified. From November to January alone, Ukrainian aerial means violated Belarus's airspace three times. "I am only talking about Ukraine. I am not including the West," Alexander Lukashenko noted.

"And what was happening with our western neighbors? Operational and combat training activities have increased manifold, with the practice of tasks that were by no means defensive, as they tried to convince us, but specifically offensive actions. Aerial reconnaissance along our borders was conducted with an intensity of 15-20 flights per week. Clearly, for the purpose of identifying the air defense system and assessing our capabilities. They marked our facilities on maps. Why? For defensive purposes?" the President said. "We also saw how actively military infrastructure (airfields, ports, storage bases, transport communications) was being prepared to receive large troop groupings. The European Union has taken significant measures to simplify the movement of foreign troops across its territories by adopting the so-called military Schengen." "Echelons with weapons, ammunition, equipment, and personnel moved unimpeded from Great Britain, Germany, the Czech Republic, and other countries to Eastern Europe," the head of state specified.

Under the guise of resolving the migration crisis in neighboring countries, a troop grouping was created, allegedly to cover the borders from illegal crossings by migrants. Its strength, according to available data alone, exceeded 30,000 people. Ukraine deployed over 6,000 people to the border with Belarus at the initial stage.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched operation "Polesie" with the aim of preparing their troops for actions in the Belarusian direction, and began arming nationalist formations also for actions in this direction.

Then, along its northern, eastern, and southern borders, from Lviv to Odesa, they conducted the exercise "Blizzard-2022" involving about 30,000 more people. Bias was shown towards Belarusian citizens traveling to Ukraine. And all this against the backdrop of information hysteria and far-fetched accusations of aggression preparation by Belarus.

"Taken together, all these facts clearly indicated the West's possible preparation for aggression against Belarus and Russia," the President noted.

In the current situation, the heads of state of Belarus and Russia decided to test the response forces of the Union State. "What's new here? We see tension, we decided with Putin to test our forces," noted Alexander Lukashenko.

The final stage of the test was planned to be a joint operational exercise "Union Resolve - 2022". The test was designed to confirm the strength of the relationship between the two countries and their determination to defend their national interests.

"By the way, upon completion of the exercise, the Russian troops prepared to withdraw to their permanent deployment locations, and some (television showed this) began to withdraw. However, the West needed a military conflict, and with the accusation of Russia inciting it. Their reaction included not only information leaks and economic measures but also the readiness to redeploy an eight-thousand-strong group to Europe, of which about two thousand had already arrived by February 20 near our border. Biden was sending rapid response forces – the most trained servicemen – from various theaters of military operations to us. The question is, what do they need here near Belarus? – the President said. – The pumping of Ukraine with weapons was simply off the charts; American planes with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, as well as other weapons and ammunition, arrived daily. Simultaneously, the Armed Forces of Ukraine significantly increased the number of strikes on civilian objects in Donbas with missiles and large-caliber artillery, killing innocent people."

"You remember, quite recently thousands of refugees poured into the territory of Russia. I was with Putin at that time," the Belarusian leader noted.

"In the current situation, I asked the President of Russia to leave only a part of the forces to cover the Gomel direction specifically. Because the middle of our border with Ukraine is impassable thickets and swamps, rivers. We have something to cover the Brest direction with; there is a good brigade stationed there, and not only. But the Gomel direction and others, due to the fact that we never intended to fight with Ukraine and never thought that Ukraine would threaten us, we never deployed Armed Forces there," Alexander Lukashenko stated.

"Due to the increased military activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the resumption of hostilities along the line of contact between the parties, the heads of the DPR and LPR requested military assistance from the Russian Federation. As you know, it was provided," the President noted.

"Russia was left with no choice," the Belarusian leader stated. "At that time, we, and I primarily, understood what could happen to us. But we did not get drawn into a conflict, we did not provoke anyone. I repeat again: it was important for me to cover the southern state border. And it's a very difficult border. It's not the border in the West."

He recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin made the decision to conduct a special military operation in Donbas. "Naturally, the use of the troop grouping remaining on the territory of Belarus was envisaged. And I was informed about this at 5 a.m. on February 24. Before making such a decision, our intelligence and the Russians discovered several anti-aircraft and missile battalions on the territory of Ukraine in close proximity to the Belarusian border (this was on the evening of February 23, before 11 p.m.), ready to strike Russian troops in concentration areas on our territory. Those troops that I asked Putin to leave in Belarus," the head of state said.

According to him, the Americans leaked intelligence data to the Ukrainian side: "Satellites were circling over our territory. It is very difficult to hide anything now, and no one was hiding anything. All intelligence data was transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Otherwise, why would they have moved heavy weapons to our border?"

Simultaneously with the announcement of the decision to conduct the operation, Russia launched a preemptive strike against this heavy weaponry and positions to prevent its own losses and impact on Belarus. "If this had not been done, these missiles would have flown to Gomel and Mozyr," the head of state noted.